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йСҵձ鸴4¹ҵֳԤ
512ҵծԸг Ժͨ3Ԫ ŷ ӢһGDP½2.0%ȿܼ Ӣŷó̸нչ˫һ г ӡƳ20¬Ⱦô̼ƻ ɳ6¶100Ͱ/գءģ ǶԪʵ20189ˮƽ Ȩ̬ µµȨõȼչ桱 µȨõȼչ桱 µγȨõȼչ桱 Ҫʼ ծʾµ̬ƣŷԪҪծծ Ԫָ߸߲ͻ100λҶ ʴƷ۸ ܹԭͼ۸ܹ˼֧Ŷִ ܹʻƽ۸ ۽ йСҵձ鸴4¹ҵֳԤ 515գйͳƾֹʾ4·ݹģϹҵֵͬ3.9%Ϊ-1.1%תӻȿ4·ݹģϹҵֵ2.3%1~4·ݣģϹҵֵͬ½4.9%4·ݲɿҵֵͬ0.3%ٱ»3.9ٷֵ㣻ҵ5.0%Ϊ-1.8%ȼˮӦҵ0.2%Ϊ-1.6%ӾͿ4·ݹпعҵֵͬ0.5%ɷҵ4.0%̼۰̨Ͷҵ3.9%˽Ӫҵ7.0% ϵ4йҵۣһΪСҵ˽ӪҵҵѸ7.0%ҵٸգڷ˰Ѽһϵд̼£ڳнԴͷ4ҵǿ¡˹Լ5Gչ֧£߶װ˹ԼҵԸơ 512ҵծԸг 512գͶйϸҵծļƻͨгҵŴߣSMCCFͶծȯнETFΪ3ͨ2ԪԮƻһ֣Ữ4,540Ԫʽ֧ĸƻSMCCFһʹþô̼ʽĽڹߡ ϵSMCCFʽþ壺һٴκ½ˮƽԽծʽѹϯΪݲǸʼƻӦòȡԹߣSMCCFԪŴЧáǽҵõʵг˾ծߵʹĺôܸ˱ʣǽҵŸܸ74.4%1951¸ߡܵûԼ¹ѸŵӰ죬ҵծõȼµԼΥԼķաSMCCFڶгETF֧Ųҵծáҵծ50״ҵծжԽгĸԤ Ժͨ3Ԫ 515գƵԺͶƱͨһֹģ3Ԫ¹ƻҪݰΪʽȱݺ͵طԼ1Ԫеڶÿ1,200Ԫֽ֧Ʊţÿͥ߿ɻ6,000Ԫ2,000ԪڸбҪҵԱΣս750Ԫ¹ڲÿ600Ԫʧҵղԭ7½ӳ1£1,750Ԫ𡢵ѺҵԮȡ ϵ¹ij£صʷϺʧҵ3ѮʧҵȼũҵԼʧҵʾ´¼ˣ̨þάͨͥƣĿǰѾͨܶ3Ԫ־ƻһ3ԪƻǷʵȻڲȷԣҪΪԺԹ͵ΪĿǰأþ˳ͨһϰ⣬ξ֧£4·ִﵽ¼7,380Ԫֽֿߴ3.7ԪһӴծѹ ӢһGDP½2.0%ȿܼ 514գӢͳƾַʾӢһȹֵGDPή2.0%Ϊ2008ļȾΣļȽһȾѾӳ¹ӢɵӰ죬3ʵʩʩGDP»ߴ5.8%ҵռӢò80%ķҵһ»1.9%Ϊм¼ļȽҵҵ½2.1%ĸ½ҵ»2.6%Ϊ8Ƚ ϵӢһȵľñԺŷңҪΪӢֱ3²ŽǿƸ룬ȡٴʹһȾӰСӢ3²ȡر̵ꡢưɡݡԺӰԺͽȴʩ¾ô¼ή5.8%1997꿪ʼ¼¶ص⣬ڷٴһֱ5£ӢѡͶʺóۣԤӢȾ»ΪԡΪӦǿƸľóӢ3½ʽ¼͵㣬Ƴ2,000Ӣծȯƻ Ӣŷó̸нչ˫һ 515գӢŷδϵһ̸нŷϯŷ̸дҮʾ˫ڹؼûȡýչӢȱóЭҰıʾʧ̸漰ƷͷóסҵͺաԴŷƶҵȫƽڵЭȡýչӢڴ2021꿪ʼŷ˴ɷΧխóЭ顣 ϵӢԽ131ʽŷ볤һĹڣ˫Ҫ1231ǰöóЭ̸ΪӢŷ˵ĵ̸ִ̡漰ƷͷóסҵͺաԴ˫һ硣ӢŷδڡŷڴóЭ飬ҹڲӳ˫»صó֯¿չóסӢӲŷһӢŷóó׳ɱټ¹ijŷýټеķա ӡƳ20¬Ⱦô̼ƻ 512գӡĪڵӽӡƳڶܼ20¬ȵĴ̼üƻӦԼӡȹֵ10%ּƻصչũͷСȺ塣ոüƻӡȽΪṩ2µʳԤԼ8000Ǩ㹤˴档⣬ĿҲȫͳһ䣬8·ݽ236.8ڡ⣬515գһ10Ԫʽƻ֧ӡ¹ڲӰƶͥԼΪЩȺṩԮʹаӡȿԮ20Ԫ ϵӡ¹뾭˥˵˫ѹһ棬ӡ˿ܼƶԼҽϲӡȷָµزֹۡһ棬ڵĸʹҵͣͣԼʧҵӡ4·ҵPMIΪ27.4ҵѾֻͣͣƷҵҵС⣬¹֮ǰӡȵľѾ˲Ϊ˰ռٺ֧ӣӾ֧ṹʧԼծʵˣӡȵڶ20ھþƻΪṩдԵͣʹĸӰ죻⣬ƻڰȺ壬Իƶ˿ڵʳΣԼ֧ͨͥĻ֧ ɳ6¶100Ͱ/գءģ 511գɳذԴһλԱʾСOPEC+ЭĻϣòָʾʯ˾˾6¶100Ͱ/յIJΪ֧ɳͷĽһָԴгȶŬغͰҲȺ6Ը8Ͱ/պ10Ͱ/աϢͼһֹ ϵɳؾʯ;ã70%~80%Դʯ룬˱ȫͼ۵Ѿɳؾһ3²ԭͼ۸50%ɳ㴢±270Ԫ20ٶȡˮ2011ˮƽԭͳ٣ɳһȲָߴ90Ԫʻһ֯Ԥ⣬ɳؾý꽫ή2.3%ΪŤת²棬һɳزȡٴ룬ֵ˰ԱĽӦ¹ڲкͼ۱IJӰ죻һ棬ɳشжȶͼۣɳؽ6µIJ750Ͱ/գ⽫Ϊɳ2002Ͳɳش˴ԸҪ壬ΪгΪ800Ͱ/յIJΪɿԽĺߣɳһ˵ȶԭгľģӦһԭгṹ ǶԪʵ20189ˮƽ 513գսƲôʩǵ˫ش£ʰľǰ¹ٷǶԪڷǹٷгϵ20189ˮƽٷǹٷгʵվBonbastݣĿǰԪǶߴ171,2001վĹٷΪ42,0001ǰʹٷǶΪ110,000Ƕ൱ڽٷĨȥĸ㡣ݵͨġʻҺзǶڴڼ䣬ռӲҺͳƱӲҺͳƱ档 ϵ2018˳ʺЭ鲢ƲʻǶѱֵԼ60%¹ȫԼͼ۵ĵݣʾسʽлҸĸҪԭһʳڵĶͨ͵±гٱ;òϵĶΣʱұֵңʵĻǶֵ1100,000500,000Լ1,000,000ֵϵʾʹñԪжһ˴λҸĸʽΪʵ֮һȡԪн㡣ʱλҸĸﲻҵĽЧȶھãԱԪµ㴢ˮա Ȩ̬ µµȨõȼչ桱 515գµµȨõȼչ桱ͬʱά䳤ڱȨõȼAA+/AA+䡣Ϊȫ¹жµúشӰ죬Ԥ2020µʵGDPٽ»8.3%ӳΣȫԼεij µȨõȼչ桱 515գµȨõȼչ桱ͬʱά䳤ڱȨõȼAA/AA䡣Ϊ¹ڷȫӵӰ죬3ʵʩٴ룬ӼҸ;÷ȫû٣Ϊ̼÷չ̨֧ߣ⽫ծѹԤƽ귨Ĺ;ûܵۡ µγȨõȼչ桱 515գµγȨõȼչ桱ͬʱά䳤ڱȨõȼB-/B-䡣Ϊ¹εľúͽгسٵ㴢ܼڵծѹⲿճڽһ9Ԫծ2020굽ڣ20203µףν10Ԫ㴢ծѹˣδڣǷծչڻʣΪʵҪע㡣
Ҫʼ ծʾµ̬ƣŷԪҪծծ ܣݣ4CPI½0.8%200812Ƚ4ָҲ½1.3%2009½ھñƣı£պʵʩߣծʾµ̬ơ1ڡ5ں10ծƽʷֱΪ0.15%0.33%Լ0.67%ֱµ0.201.60Լ0.20BP ܣŷԪҪծծơڳծߵԼйȸı£йծܵͶй1ڡ5ں10ڹծӦծƽֱܷ3.6812.018.73BP1.07%1.69%2.02%ձбʾκձծԿʣٵծµӰ죬ձ1ڡ5ں10ڹծӦծƽֱܷ0.540.570.58BP-0.33%-0.44%-0.66%ܵ¹һȾ½-2.2%ԽΣȵľ˥ˣ¹ŷԪ÷չĺĹң¹ƣ±ŷڹծʾ½ŷԪ1ڡ5ں10ڹծӦծƽСխ2.023.20Լ0.49BP-0.77%-1.03%-1.09%
Ԫָ߸߲ͻ100λҶ ܣԪָܵƲͻ100λһΪծʼƻйծģߵ¼960Ԫʹҹծ߸ߣԪָͻ100أΪϯʾĿǰῼǸʻߣDzøΪԪ߹ߣԪָ֣Ϊ4CPIµ2008ƣľͶ߶£ԪıҲԻ۹һ֧šˣԪָڳǣ100.3774ıܸߵ㣬ۼ0.55%
ܣԪָǵı£ȫҪҶŷԪ棬ƣľ֧ŷԪܳҪأܶŷԪԪ0.38%ԪָڱʽԼϯԲȡʻߵӰ£ŷԪ۵ķռ䡣ŷԪԪ1.0819ۼµ0.09%Ӣ棬һ汾Ӣݳ¯һGDPή2.0%Ϊ2008ļȾΣļȽԤƶȾýһ˥ˣƣľûӾͶӢѹһ棬Ӣŷ˵ŷ̸зأЭŷսһʹͶȼֻӢһӢԪ1.2102ۼµ2.47%Ԫ棬ձһ˥ˣԵľñּӾͶߵıԪ߸ߡǣԪ̬ܵǿԪԪСµԪԪ107.0300ۼС0.42%
ܣ롢ڰҾµơһ棬Ԫָǿ߸ߣʹ롢ڰҳѹһ棬ĵָڻԼ0.9%ŷStoxx 50ָ2.4%ʱйA50ָڻԼ0.9%VIXָ߸ߡȫгֻ߸ߣʹ롢ڰһСԪ밶7.1341ۼ0.57%Ԫڰ7.0995ۼС0.35% ʴƷ۸ ܹԭͼ۸ܹ˼֧Ŷִ һɳСOPEC+ЭĻϽ6¶100Ͱ/յIJغͰҲȺ6Ը8Ͱ/պ10Ͱ/գԭ˵Ĵ֧ͼۻͬʱŷʩԭҲƣعͬӰ£ͼ۱߳һǿǵ顣ֹ̣NYMEXԭͼ۸29.78Ԫ/Ͱۼƴ14.94%ͬڣICEͼ۸32.74Ԫ/Ͱۼ6.64%
ܹʻƽ۸ ϯĽܲɷʱʾƱʲ۸ܻܵ¹еش澭øյĽܻ̿2021ףҵȡĽܴӰ죬Ͷӿʲټ¹ڲĴȫгѹʹȫʵʩ̼ʩʾƽѾԼ16%⣬ȫʻʱΪƽͰṩ˶ܡ壬ʻƽ۸1,754.1Ԫ/˾ۼƴ2.82%
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